This is Disney's Year

By Eduardo A. Viera

Disney is on a roll. For those who thought last year was Disney’s break-out year after releasing The Avengers: Age of Ultron and the highly anticipated Star Wars: The Force Awakens in the span of months, you’re clearly not following Disney in 2016. 

   Let’s begin with the grand scheme of things. Out of 26 movies that have reached one billion dollars at the global box office, 11 of those are from Disney. Its closest competitor?
Warner Bros. Pictures, with only 6 of their movies reaching the billion mark (out of 26). Then comes Universal Pictures with 4 (3 of those from last year) and then 3 from 20th Century Fox and 2 from Paramount Pictures. That means Disney is annihilating their competition, and it will continue to do so. In January 1st, 2016, Disney only had 9 movies that had reached one billion. In the span of 6 months though, it has added two more movies: Captain America: Civil War and Zootopia. The fact Civil War reached that milestone is no surprise - if anything, it was expected to do so. Zootopia, on the other hand, was a surprise hit, largely fuelled by China’s love for it. In China alone it made more than 250 million (in comparison, Inside Out did less than 50 million in China, and wasn’t able to reach one billion). 

   Zootopia and Civil War are the only two movies to have reached 1 billion this year, but that’s not enough for Disney. The top 3 movies this year are from Disney and based on the numbers Finding Dory is pulling, I’m predicting that soon enough it’ll pass BvS to make The Walt Disney Company have the top 4 movies of 2016. How is this happening? You see, this is the first time that Disney’s intellectual properties are on full throttle: Pixar, Marvel, Star Wars and even their famous Princess movies all have releases this year. Marvel already showed their fruits with Civil War, but Dr. Strange is still on the horizon. Based on the fact Finding Dory has raving reviews and had a record-breaking box office weekend, I’m going to go ahead and imply that movie is also reaching the 1-Bill club (Finding Nemo did 935 million). 

   If Finding Dory does reach 1B (it probably will), then that gives Disney three one billion dollar movies in one year, tying the record with Universal Pictures. Universal took the record last year with Furious 7, Minions and Jurassic World. Will Disney be able to beat the record, though? Will it be able to get 4 (or more) one billion dollar movies? Well, it just might. Its best chance is probably Dr. Strange. There has been much fanfare surrounding this movie, and Marvel fans are known for pulling through. Guardians of the Galaxy (a property almost no one knew before the movie came out) was able to do more than 750 million dollars worldwide, so if Dr. Strange can tap into the same audience, and use its name recognition, then there’s a chance it’ll make it. There is also Star Wars: Rogue One, but most of the fan’s thirst was quenched with last year’s The Force Awakens, so this movie would really have to be special to reach one billion. My estimate is that it will do around 800-900 million, and it’d be funny to see it beat BvS. 

   Finally, there’s a wild card: Moana. Princess movies, if done right, have proven to be hugely successful (see: Frozen, Snow White, Cinderella box offices). The thing about Disney’s track record with princess movies is that it usually hits real gold once per decade, the last time being with Frozen in 2012. On that note, it took Frozen two releases AND the catchiest song to reach 1.2B, so Moana would have to be as special. Not saying it’s not possible, and I would pay some good money to hear The Rock sing, but it’ll definitely be a hard endeavour for Moana to reach 1B.

   At the beginning of the year I had hopes The BFG was going to pull through, specially taking into account its from the same team that made E.T. (which made +750 million worldwide at the time). But the reviews are not great, and Disney’s own Finding Dory is slowing down its box office success. The only way this movie is getting anywhere close to one billion is if it’s a sleeper hit, à-la Avatar. If none of the movies discussed above reach that milestone, chances are none of the other movies Disney is releasing this year will. They are indies and the live action version of Pete’s Dragon is probably going to do the same numbers live action versions of princess movies have done (around 500 million). 

   And what if it doesn’t get 4 one billion dollar movies? Disney still has another record to beat: highest gross in the domestic box office in the span of a year. In more simple terms, the most money made in USA and Canada in one year. The record was reached by Universal in 2015 with 2.444 Billion dollars made domestically. Between January and June though, The Walt Disney Company has already made 1.75 Billion dollars domestically. This means that if Rogue One, Moana and Dr. Strange only do 250 million each in USA/Canada, then it’ll have beaten the record, and that’s without counting how much money the other Disney movies will do. 

So yeah, Disney’s having a pretty good year. 

This is Joe Daven, signing out. Have a good day, and always enjoy life